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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-04-30T10:40:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-04-30T10:40Z
CME Note: CME arrival is not clear since it appears to be combined with a solar sector boundary
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-05-04T17:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-05-03T15:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2017-04-30T10:40UTC
Radial velocity (km/s): 580km/s
Longitude (deg): 31 West
Latitude (deg): 12 South
Half-angular width (deg): 19 degrees

Notes: The main trajectory in LASCO C2/C3 initially appears to be off the direct Earth line. But it has been difficult fitting the analysis with Stereo A difference imagery. Evidence that a coronal footprint from the CME (SDO 193) with an area of coronal dimming extending further east, and GONG imagery indicating a filament eruption nearer to centre disc, suggests only moderate confidence in a miss. About 30% of the ENLIL ensemble members suggest a detectable arrival at Earth, approx. ranging from plus or minus 9 hours. If it arrives the most likely max Kp will be 4 or 5.
Space weather advisor: MSWOC

Lead Time: 91.33 hour(s)
Difference: 26.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2017-04-30T22:10Z

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